Financial speculation and bubble: An empirical investigation of bubble in the Turkish stock market

Abstract

Rapid transformation in technology and science supports Thomas Khun's paradigm shift foresight. Especially developments in the financial markets affect the government, political authority, and eventually individual investors. One of the important developments resulting these effects is speculation. According to the definition by Kaldor (1960 and 1976), speculation is not the benefit provided from the use of an asset, but the highness of the return to be obtained as a result of resale in the next period. In the first part of the study, the history of financial speculations will be explained comparatively with the help of significant financial speculations experienced, crisis-speculation, and manipulation concepts. In the second part of the study, major financial speculations will be examined in the light of the studies in the literature. In the third and last part of the study, with reference to the tulip mania which occurred in the Netherlands and known as the biggest wave of speculation influencing the whole world, South Sea Bubble, Mississippi Bubble, US Stock and Real Estate Bubble, Japan Real Estate Bubble, Swedish Real Estate Bubble, Internet Bubble, and Mortgage Crisis, the existence of speculative bubble price formation is tested using the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test using the daily closing prices (2006-2019) of the Istanbul Stock Exchange Istanbul 100 (XU100). In conclusion, balloon price formation was seen in weekly closing prices of XU100 Index. © Peter Lang AG 2020.